Geopolitical Week Ahead: September 16 – 22
What The Scowcroft Group is watching in the coming week
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Summit
Germany state election
Sri Lanka holds presidential election
French President Macron meets Armenia Prime Minister Pashinyan
German Chancellor Scholz visits Central Asia
Airplane Reading: Our selection of deep reading this week
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Summit
Quad leaders – from Australia, India, Japan, and the US – will meet in Wilmington, Delaware (Sep. 21) ahead of the UN General Assembly’s Summit of the Future (Sep. 22-23) and High-level Week (Sep. 23-27). They will likely reinforce a commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific amid increasing Chinese regional assertiveness.
The Takeaway: India nominally chairs the Quad this year but is swapping hosting duties with the US. New Delhi is now slated to host the 2025 Quad summit and welcome the next US president for a state visit. This will be the last Quad meeting for President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida; the latter shouldered the blame for recent LDP scandals and decided not to contest his party’s upcoming leadership election. (It is unlikely that the next Japanese prime minister will change Kishida’s approach to ties with the US, closer relations with South Korea and concerns about China’s actions in the maritime domain.) In addition to focusing on territorial integrity and sovereignty in the Indo-Pacific, leaders will also discuss key global challenges like the war in Ukraine and the Middle East. The meeting follows recent revelations that India is aiding Russian circumvention of US sanctions to acquire critical materials for its war effort in Ukraine. Other reports from New Delhi, however, indicate that Indian companies are secretly selling arms and ammunition to Ukraine.
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